Below is a piece we put together in November that was sent around to our network. Given recent market action and the thesis still largely playing out, we decided to share it, which we are likely to do more of in the future.
The probabilities of US rates falling materially over the next six to eight months are the highest of the cycle. While global equities and commodities have begun to price in slowing growth, US rates are marginally off the highs – with the 10-year trading at 3.06%. The discon