Merlin is a 'top-down' research tool, not a trading system. Its development started in 2007. It combines macroeconomic models and machine learning algorithms. These algorithms are used for regression and classification purposes.
Merlin analyzes the risks associated with: changes in consensus EPS for the S&P 500, the pace of US/Global economic growth, inflation expectations, monetary policy adjustments, tightening of financial conditions and credit availability, absolute and relative valuation of the S&P 500, investment portfolios flows and Investors / businesses / consumers’ confidence.
Merlin also aims to minimize portfolio turnover. The monthly probability is updated weekly but rarely changes drastically during the month. In times of heightened market volatility, Merlin produces additional suggestions of entry/profit-taking price levels that are conditional to its probability.